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There are opportunities for progress all around us. The key is to innovate on these opportunities sustainably.
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TL;DR: Unusual hashtag #RecessionIndicator memes are everywhere on social media–a viral trend that, thankfully, has less to do with accurately predicting the future and everything to do with how we’re all feeling about living in economic uncertainty.
From animal entrails to planetary positions in the sky, people have long relied on patterns and signs to predict the future and offer guidance in uncertain times. Today, humanity’s need to determine outcomes based on bizarre cues is alive and well–in the form of weird recession indicators that potentially signal economic downturns.
For example, economists and market watchers have kept an eye on surging frozen pizza sales since the pandemic–an unconventional indicator that supposedly reveals how budget-conscious consumers tend to switch to cheaper comfort food with longer shelf life during periods of economic anxiety. And in today’s anxiety-ridden society, the running joke is that just about anything these days could be a recession indicator.
Let’s dive into what’s driving the rise in offbeat economic predictions and how reliable they are as omens of economic doom.
What are traditional recession indicators and why do they matter?
First thing’s first: what is a recession? A recession is generally defined as a significant, broad-based decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions in the United States, looks at a variety of indicators to assess the health of the economy. These traditional recession indicators are technical markers that display discernible patterns before or during periods of economic recessions.
Some popular indicators are…
Real GDP
A textbook definition of a recession is a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total monetary value of a country’s goods and services, for at least two consecutive quarters.
Consumer Spending
As the largest component of GDP, a decline in consumer spending–especially for non-essetials–has a direct effect on economic output, with tightened belts leading to less economic activity.
Unemployment
Rising joblessness usually signals contracting economic activity.
Inflation
Consumers eventually cut back on spending during prolonged periods of high inflation without economic growth.
Examples of other formal recession indicators are falling industrial production, declining stock prices and interest rates.
So why are weird economic signals trending?
What do women’s skirt lengths in the 1920s, men’s underwear sales in the 1980s, lipstick purchases and the recent rise in first dates have in common? It’s that people have historically looked for coincidences and patterns outside traditional economic data as informal recession indicators. But why do we do this?
Simplicity, Relatability (and Appeal)
While well-established and statistically reliable, traditional recession indicators are often lagging or revised long after the facts have transpired. This means that the economy might already be in decline by the time the data confirms it.
Also–they’re much more boring. Technical metrics like inverted yield curves are complex and may not be easily understandable by the average person.
In contrast, informal recession indicators like frozen pizza sales, grocery store traffic and pawn shop transactions connect macroeconomic concepts with real, visible changes in daily life. They’re simple, relatable and make for catchy, entertaining and potentially viral headlines across social media platforms.
Data Accessibility and Media Amplification
With economic data now democratized and easily accessible in real-time, people are taking matters into their own hands–seeking new ways to make sense of lingering economic uncertainty in a post-pandemic world.
Unfortunately, this accessibility means that anyone with an internet connection and enough intelligence to rationalize an argument using bare facts can call themselves an armchair economist.
While empowering, this kind of democratization can also fuel confirmation bias–especially when social media amplifies the conversation. With so much information available online, it becomes difficult to weed out what’s truly valuable and what isn’t.
Economic Anxiety, Uncertainty & Public Distrust
High levels of post-pandemic anxiety, along with growing public distrust in governments and financial institutions since the 2008 financial crisis, have also made people wary about blindly accepting mainstream information. The rise of weird recession indicators reveals a broader shift: people want to protect themselves from negative economic impacts on their own terms, in ways that make sense to them.
Are weird recession indicators actually reliable?
While a few offbeat recession metrics have some predictive correlation–such as the men’s underwear index, which suggests that declining sales in men’s underwear reveals falling consumer confidence–they’re often delayed indicators that reflect rather than predict a negative economic shift.
The correlation between weird indicators and the recessions they supposedly foretell is anecdotal in most cases. The danger lies in mistaking this correlation for causation and treating them as hard forecasts.
The real takeaway is that unusual recession indicators reflect consumer sentiment and economic anxiety. Public interest in quirky recession memes seems to function as a coping mechanism in times of stress–a phenomenon that will most likely persist while economic uncertainty remains high.
Final Thoughts: #RecessionIndicators are fun… but they’re not foolproof
While unusual, non-traditional recession indicators like frozen pizza and underwear sales aren’t useless. They provide valuable insights into how people are feeling about the economy and may, at times, be on to something.
Yet while shorter skirts may say something about the times, it isn’t a substitute for solid macroeconomic analysis. And in a content economy where misinformation can spread like viral wildfire, it’s vital for audiences to remain discerning and on guard. Trendy #RecessionIndicators are no replacement for proven metrics like GDP, interest rates and inverted yields.
So the next time you find yourself at the local grocery stocking up on your favorite frozen pizza, ask yourself: is this dinner, or am I just worried about another recession?




